I enjoy your financial essays a lot and this article is interesting from technical and historical point of view. But bragging about support for bloody Kiev regime is frankly disgusting. The main military advantage of Ukrainian army is not just a complete disregard for civilian lives(and it's not even civilian lives in some foreign countries, but own citizens), but actively utilizing civilians presence. A widely adopted tactic to hide heavy military equipment in residential areas, near schools and hospitals to prevent return fire makes Russian troops progress indeed difficult. Since 2014 Ukraine military rotated majority of active servicemen through ATO zone in order to determine and foster insensitivity to human lives. Apparently not everyone can fire on innocent people. So selection process was necessary.
So drones or not, Ukrainian military will be decimated. It's just a right thing to do. Russians should be (and I think they do) targeting western weapon cargos right on the borders for ground deliveries or in the air/on airfields, before they reach the destination. Although lots of that weaponry ends up in the hands of Donbass fighters and they surely use them well.
I do understand that you have to be on the "correct" side politically, otherwise the authorities will crush your business, but still a thumb down for this one.
Looking for investments to fight the next war because big and powerful will not defeat small and nimble. We have learned nothing since Vietnam. UAV look to be part of the new dynamic. I look forward to your insights every week. You have influenced my thinking for the past several years. Thank you.
Brings to mind Musk in a symposium with a Lt General John Thompson. Musk was saying more or less what you've said above, the Lt Gen was somewhat incredulous and disbelieving.
I read that in the last Gaza war the Israel tanks has anti missile systems that neutralised the antitank missiles. Defense always catches up with offense. Maybe the drones will fight each other to a standoff and we can all watch it on the internet.
Thank you the article, Mr. Hay. The evolution of Weaponry will take us to nano-drones, anti-missile, anti-aircraft, anti-drone technology that makes all current weaponry obsolete. I've read articles discussing U.S. Military's use of "Smart Dust", in essance, tiny computers that can be dropped on a Nation and now you have all sorts of intelligence, including location and makeup of Armies, hardware, etc., etc. This was at least a decade ago so no telling what advancements are currently available. I wouldn't rule out Assasin Drones that can fly into an area known to be inhabited by an Enemy and then, stealthily and with incredible precision, taking out Individuals without so much as a sound being made. Nearly 20 years ago, MIT Robotics teams were building robots that looked like snakes and insects...Their most interested visitors? The U.S. Military. I leave it up to your imaginations as to what is now being tested at the Skunkworks...
Well war itself is a static ideal isn't it? We all know when a war is going on don't we? Or do we? I mean the computer hacking stuff against the US, that's been attributed to China or Russia is really war as it seeks to hurt your opponent, or help you in your pursuit of power over your opponent..ie leverage or concessions? So drones, albeit, a new tactical tool...really game changing? They've been around for many years, they took advantage of logistic targets mainly in the Ukraine...some air dominance effects. But don't forget the anti tank missles (not drones) seem to have an important effect too, but perhaps more because of the terrain, defending your own territory, lack of experience of the Russian forces, simple to use versions, etc. The missle tactics appear to be hit and run, which allows a small unit to creep in, take a shot, and scurry away. A force multiplier.
Drones need experienced people to pilot and take the shot...not a simple point and shoot like the missles are. And they standoff time is very short...your going to need intelligence, radio communications with troops on the edge/fight, coordination. Something that has yet to be proven (or publicized yet). Finally the East and South of Ukraine is different terrain and seems to center around the cities...These may require, block to block fighting...perhaps why Russia can't seem to take the Steel Factory...it doesn't even train for urban war fare.
We are so far removed and away from understanding the war. I admire Ukraine for fighting, but is it more luck than steel?
From 30 years in navy logistics. The 20-80 rule still applies. 20% acquisition, 80% lifetime support cost. Putting ordnance on target from an airplane, ship, or tank requires an ENORMOUS logistics/maintenance tail. And that cost accrues even in peacetime because of readiness. An aircraft carrier must be ready to launch at all times at sea, for example. A warehouse of drones, however...
I enjoy your financial essays a lot and this article is interesting from technical and historical point of view. But bragging about support for bloody Kiev regime is frankly disgusting. The main military advantage of Ukrainian army is not just a complete disregard for civilian lives(and it's not even civilian lives in some foreign countries, but own citizens), but actively utilizing civilians presence. A widely adopted tactic to hide heavy military equipment in residential areas, near schools and hospitals to prevent return fire makes Russian troops progress indeed difficult. Since 2014 Ukraine military rotated majority of active servicemen through ATO zone in order to determine and foster insensitivity to human lives. Apparently not everyone can fire on innocent people. So selection process was necessary.
So drones or not, Ukrainian military will be decimated. It's just a right thing to do. Russians should be (and I think they do) targeting western weapon cargos right on the borders for ground deliveries or in the air/on airfields, before they reach the destination. Although lots of that weaponry ends up in the hands of Donbass fighters and they surely use them well.
I do understand that you have to be on the "correct" side politically, otherwise the authorities will crush your business, but still a thumb down for this one.
I greatly enjoy everything I read from Evergreen and Gavekal.
Great read - puts into perspective the notion that "everything and everyone has a price..."
Thanks again for sharing your thoughts, Dave!
Great article !
Looking for investments to fight the next war because big and powerful will not defeat small and nimble. We have learned nothing since Vietnam. UAV look to be part of the new dynamic. I look forward to your insights every week. You have influenced my thinking for the past several years. Thank you.
David… one of my best reads this morning. I’ve been a follower for a long time. Keep it up. We really enjoy your efforts.
Brings to mind Musk in a symposium with a Lt General John Thompson. Musk was saying more or less what you've said above, the Lt Gen was somewhat incredulous and disbelieving.
https://youtu.be/sp8smJFaKYE?t=2430
I've always had a feeling that unmanned drones were the future of warfare. Now I'm sure of it.
I read that in the last Gaza war the Israel tanks has anti missile systems that neutralised the antitank missiles. Defense always catches up with offense. Maybe the drones will fight each other to a standoff and we can all watch it on the internet.
I like he global perspective given
Thank you the article, Mr. Hay. The evolution of Weaponry will take us to nano-drones, anti-missile, anti-aircraft, anti-drone technology that makes all current weaponry obsolete. I've read articles discussing U.S. Military's use of "Smart Dust", in essance, tiny computers that can be dropped on a Nation and now you have all sorts of intelligence, including location and makeup of Armies, hardware, etc., etc. This was at least a decade ago so no telling what advancements are currently available. I wouldn't rule out Assasin Drones that can fly into an area known to be inhabited by an Enemy and then, stealthily and with incredible precision, taking out Individuals without so much as a sound being made. Nearly 20 years ago, MIT Robotics teams were building robots that looked like snakes and insects...Their most interested visitors? The U.S. Military. I leave it up to your imaginations as to what is now being tested at the Skunkworks...
Thank you. DERoberts
Well war itself is a static ideal isn't it? We all know when a war is going on don't we? Or do we? I mean the computer hacking stuff against the US, that's been attributed to China or Russia is really war as it seeks to hurt your opponent, or help you in your pursuit of power over your opponent..ie leverage or concessions? So drones, albeit, a new tactical tool...really game changing? They've been around for many years, they took advantage of logistic targets mainly in the Ukraine...some air dominance effects. But don't forget the anti tank missles (not drones) seem to have an important effect too, but perhaps more because of the terrain, defending your own territory, lack of experience of the Russian forces, simple to use versions, etc. The missle tactics appear to be hit and run, which allows a small unit to creep in, take a shot, and scurry away. A force multiplier.
Drones need experienced people to pilot and take the shot...not a simple point and shoot like the missles are. And they standoff time is very short...your going to need intelligence, radio communications with troops on the edge/fight, coordination. Something that has yet to be proven (or publicized yet). Finally the East and South of Ukraine is different terrain and seems to center around the cities...These may require, block to block fighting...perhaps why Russia can't seem to take the Steel Factory...it doesn't even train for urban war fare.
We are so far removed and away from understanding the war. I admire Ukraine for fighting, but is it more luck than steel?
From 30 years in navy logistics. The 20-80 rule still applies. 20% acquisition, 80% lifetime support cost. Putting ordnance on target from an airplane, ship, or tank requires an ENORMOUS logistics/maintenance tail. And that cost accrues even in peacetime because of readiness. An aircraft carrier must be ready to launch at all times at sea, for example. A warehouse of drones, however...