High-level macro-market insights, actionable economic forecasts, and plenty of friendly candor to give you a fighting chance in the day's financial fray.
David, I enjoyed reading your thoughts and your panel experience with David Rosenberg, a legendary economist no doubt!
But I think your long-time market experiences in the trenches gave you a leg up in analyzing the market now especially when stocks and bonds signals are confusing and telling different stories (thanks to the AI boom!) Economists assume certain relationships hold and we are all rational human beings but you know we as market participants need to change their mind fast when data said otherwise!
Hope you are well. I finally joined the Substack community! Marianne
I can't help but be concerned over the concept of 'this time is different' as history has shown it rarely, if ever, is. but with that in mind, I fear your scenario analysis may well be spot on. the surface similarities will be dominated by the shear size of debt issuance and that bodes ill for bonds, and probably the economy as well.
Thanks David. Really appreciate your summary of the podcast. Time is very tight this week, so I’m extra grateful that you took time to write this!
Mostly agree with you. Rosie is probably not quite correct about the relevance of the distant past.
One general caveat is that as much as I respect Crescat regarding the metals space, it seems like they are not as objective about overall market conditions and outcomes as I would generally prefer in my sources of information and analysis.
Very happy that you’re looking at all aspects of investable markets! Keep up the great work!
David, thanks so much for your weekly substack narratives to include videos...I discovered your global investment guidance from the Wealthion interview!
We share the same age (yes I really know wrap-around mortgages), but today I also embrace your love for MSNB++ and from the content of this David Cubed interview your 40 year depature from buy the US Treasury long duration playbook...based on the material magnitude of Total Debt to GDP...this time is different...Rosie's F Scott 20's disinflation was pre Great Society!
Per Doris, que sera sera, currently my positioning will heavily weight precious metals (BRICS Balance of International Settlements is why I am buying on sale VIX greed soon to be major fear (what would Doris think?), EMs Brazil in particular, South Korea/Singapore and of course everything Uranium believing hydrogen ICEs will easily overtake EVs in 5 years...plus buses and semi transports.
Thanks again and keep up the excellent insightful content!
As always, Good Food for thought. I very much respect Mr. Rosenberg but I find that He is *usually* early to the Party. His latest commentary seems to continue that trend. I also am worried that Investors are getting ahead of themselves for the simple fact that Interest Rate increases come with a lag effect, usually 12-18 months and We haven't seen ALL of the increases hit the Markets yet... It's going to be a very interesting Time to come (as per the Chinese curse...). Hope everyone has a great week!
Thanks for providing the link to the chat - am really looking forward to that. Although the Fed is supposed to be apolitical, it really seems that the "kick the can" or "extend and pretend" approach will be their all-out intention until the Nov 2024 elections are done. To tighten the screws any earlier would really create a frenzy.
I believe it is wise (as you have done) to draw little comfort from past economic conditions in trying to make intelligent investment decisions today. It is a sad state of affairs to see our federal government spend as it is with little thought to what happens when the economy slows. We have already seen tax receipts slump, that next shoe of rising entitlement outlays with a recession is going to be a killer, given the huge gap in the budget now, the aggregate level of debt both public and private, and the expanded belief that government is capable of superman rescues.
There’s rumblings on Fintwit (or FinX now?) that the GDI/GDP discrepancy is an accounting matter that will be resolved in due course and that tax receipts were impacted by states allowed to defer due to disaster relief (like CA). Still, I don’t think it detracts from the thesis - this debt snowball, that keeps getting bigger as it rolls down the hill - either gets monetized by the Fed, or austerity happens (which seems like it has a snowball’s chance in hell of happening).
After watching the video clip, I believe your inflation prediction left Rosie a little baffled. He quickly assumed the “I’m smarter than you mantle” and deemed inflation too complicated to discuss or model. I was surprised by that retort! He is much to smart and thoughtful... I think he will give your analysis much more thought and perhaps may find data to allow himself room for a change of opinion...
David, I enjoyed reading your thoughts and your panel experience with David Rosenberg, a legendary economist no doubt!
But I think your long-time market experiences in the trenches gave you a leg up in analyzing the market now especially when stocks and bonds signals are confusing and telling different stories (thanks to the AI boom!) Economists assume certain relationships hold and we are all rational human beings but you know we as market participants need to change their mind fast when data said otherwise!
Hope you are well. I finally joined the Substack community! Marianne
I can't help but be concerned over the concept of 'this time is different' as history has shown it rarely, if ever, is. but with that in mind, I fear your scenario analysis may well be spot on. the surface similarities will be dominated by the shear size of debt issuance and that bodes ill for bonds, and probably the economy as well.
Som frightening scenarios possible, thanks for the insights. The SP looks to me to be forming a double top too.
Thanks David. Really appreciate your summary of the podcast. Time is very tight this week, so I’m extra grateful that you took time to write this!
Mostly agree with you. Rosie is probably not quite correct about the relevance of the distant past.
One general caveat is that as much as I respect Crescat regarding the metals space, it seems like they are not as objective about overall market conditions and outcomes as I would generally prefer in my sources of information and analysis.
Very happy that you’re looking at all aspects of investable markets! Keep up the great work!
David, thanks so much for your weekly substack narratives to include videos...I discovered your global investment guidance from the Wealthion interview!
We share the same age (yes I really know wrap-around mortgages), but today I also embrace your love for MSNB++ and from the content of this David Cubed interview your 40 year depature from buy the US Treasury long duration playbook...based on the material magnitude of Total Debt to GDP...this time is different...Rosie's F Scott 20's disinflation was pre Great Society!
Per Doris, que sera sera, currently my positioning will heavily weight precious metals (BRICS Balance of International Settlements is why I am buying on sale VIX greed soon to be major fear (what would Doris think?), EMs Brazil in particular, South Korea/Singapore and of course everything Uranium believing hydrogen ICEs will easily overtake EVs in 5 years...plus buses and semi transports.
Thanks again and keep up the excellent insightful content!
As always, Good Food for thought. I very much respect Mr. Rosenberg but I find that He is *usually* early to the Party. His latest commentary seems to continue that trend. I also am worried that Investors are getting ahead of themselves for the simple fact that Interest Rate increases come with a lag effect, usually 12-18 months and We haven't seen ALL of the increases hit the Markets yet... It's going to be a very interesting Time to come (as per the Chinese curse...). Hope everyone has a great week!
Thanks for providing the link to the chat - am really looking forward to that. Although the Fed is supposed to be apolitical, it really seems that the "kick the can" or "extend and pretend" approach will be their all-out intention until the Nov 2024 elections are done. To tighten the screws any earlier would really create a frenzy.
David,
I believe it is wise (as you have done) to draw little comfort from past economic conditions in trying to make intelligent investment decisions today. It is a sad state of affairs to see our federal government spend as it is with little thought to what happens when the economy slows. We have already seen tax receipts slump, that next shoe of rising entitlement outlays with a recession is going to be a killer, given the huge gap in the budget now, the aggregate level of debt both public and private, and the expanded belief that government is capable of superman rescues.
Thanks for your thoughts, David.
There’s rumblings on Fintwit (or FinX now?) that the GDI/GDP discrepancy is an accounting matter that will be resolved in due course and that tax receipts were impacted by states allowed to defer due to disaster relief (like CA). Still, I don’t think it detracts from the thesis - this debt snowball, that keeps getting bigger as it rolls down the hill - either gets monetized by the Fed, or austerity happens (which seems like it has a snowball’s chance in hell of happening).
Your first graph is "The Imperial Death Cross."
After watching the video clip, I believe your inflation prediction left Rosie a little baffled. He quickly assumed the “I’m smarter than you mantle” and deemed inflation too complicated to discuss or model. I was surprised by that retort! He is much to smart and thoughtful... I think he will give your analysis much more thought and perhaps may find data to allow himself room for a change of opinion...
Tough talk David! US now = China from point of view: borrowing: GDP nominal