62 Comments

When I hear people like Charles Gave, Ray Dalio, and Charles Mauldin all saying the current system isn't sustainable I have to think they're onto something. As the disconnect between value and price in the stockarket continues another absurd swing upwards I have to think it's a kind of denial of how uncertain the foundations of our economy really are. I wonder if the SP is forming a double top.

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David I am really enjoying your email updates and benefiting from them in the only a few weeks since I found you on the David Lin Report. I went after UEC, a uranium company and am up over 30% as of today in just a few weeks. Your ideas align with my expectations but your insight into how and when to capitalize on the situation are such a wonderful gift to your readers. Actionable items, I think you call them. Keep up the great work and thank you for making this great data and insight available to the little guys like me.

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I continue to be amazed at how, lately, so many so-called educated economic commentators expect US dollar hegemony (the “imperial dollar” operating system) to wane anytime soon. Ain’t going to happen. As a former international banker (30 years+) who has published on the subject of the international monetary system, I can tell you this is simply delusional thinking. It’s incredibly hard for any nation or unified economic zone to represent what the US dollar system with its safe and liquid capital markets does for the world. And other than a handful of pissed-off, power-hungry dictators the world seems fine with the current state of affairs —- and the US-led global order, financially and militarily.

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Well, his timeframe is that this will take place over the next 20 years. I could see several crisis type events (war, financial crisis, etc.) occurring over this timeframe that could force something like this to unfold. If it does happen, it definitely won't be a smooth transition!

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What's so delusional about wanting to escape a Currency controlled by a Spendaholic Government that likes to throw it's Military might around? By your logic, the Rest of the World should continue to keep it's fortunes tied to a Currency that is losing value every day and will continue to lose value because the Printer of that Money is spending itself broke...So, who's delusional?

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Aug 5, 2023·edited Aug 5, 2023

30 years is history. Today's global financial position has evolved into a perilous state of US vulnerability, you might want to consider:

US Central Bank is no longer remitting excess net interest income back to US Taxpayers = FACTS: Its Balance Sheet has an unrealized Mark to market loss of $2Tn, it is booking an annual $100Bn receivable from US Taxpayers to cover operating losses +++

US Treasury defaulted on its reserve debt when it imposed sanctions against Russia for invading Ukraine.

Let's talk some Common Sense?

If your personal bank said we don't like who you voted for so we won't clear your checks and access to pay your living expenses for your family are now frozen. What would you do?

I can get extremely Balance of International Settlements technical if you want?

But I only present a perspective for you to consider in today's geopolitical FX marketplace and the pending 8/22/23 BRICS Conference repurcussions to create their own Settlement currency pegged to a unit of gold...so far plausible speculation.

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Thanks David , this is a superb piece by Charles Gave. I have been in markets only a couple of years less than Charles and his views ring very true to me.

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Quite an interesting piece with a great deal of sense. These changes will not be smooth, so I expect there will also be an uptick in volatility across all asset classes.

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I would only say that Wise People stay away from Politics because It is an Arena where the lowest Common Nominator is usually the most popular outcome desired...

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Great share. Very interesting!

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I purchased the Bubble 3.0 audio-book. I would really like to read the updated chapter once you've completed it! As always, Charles Gave's writings are valuable and full of wisdom!

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Regarding the Feb 5, 2024 article - the COF variable preferred referenced is a mystery to me. I can only find fixed rate preferred's offered by COF. None are at 4.65%. I'm reading the prospectus " We are offering 60,000,000 of our depositary shares each representing a 1/40th ownership interest in a share of our fixed rate non-cumulative perpetual preferred stock, "

I've check on Morningstar, Fidelity, Preferred Stock Channel, WSJ --- I can't find any variable rate preferred's for COF.

Can anyone shine a light on the variable rate preferred discussed in the article?

A very frustrated subscriber.

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Hi David, I really enjoy reading your twice weekly insights. As a suggested potential issue for you to speak to in a future note I'm wondering what you think of Doomberg's latest view on oil and natural gas. I know you follow and respect him and at the same time have been pretty high on energy stocks (not only the service companies but also the exploration and production companies) for awhile. Seems his view is that longer term the price of oil will be under $70 and that the only near term justification for being long is either that geopolitical events will get very bad (e.g., wider middle east war) or that our politicians on a collective global scale are so out to lunch that they cause a temporary supply shock.

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Generally like your writings very much. Your false equivalence re: Biden vs Trump are nothing less than existentially dangerous. One follows the constitution, one does not. That's it in a nutshell. Anyone voting for anyone other than Biden puts our country's very existence at risk. One may have legitimate reasons to be less than enthused by Biden (though I have yet to see a policy based critique, just variations on ageism) . We can survive and perhaps thrive with 4 more years of Biden. Not so, Trump. Let's hold our nose, do the right thing, and look forward to 2028 when we hopefully have two sane parties candidates to pick from.

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This..."Over the next two or three years, though, I believe a serious shakeout is coming, particularly if longer-term U.S. government bond rates soar due to out-of-control deficits. "

Dave: I have recently read (or been told by) three different pundits that the deficit doesn't matter, to which I have always replied "what about the refinancing wall coming in 2025?" Been told repeatedly that it doesn't matter, but there are people like yourself (and Mauldin and Zulauf, et al...) who keep making the case that the day is coming when deficits do matter and our (only) out may be through higher rates for longer (which surfaces a host of other budget problems that are above my pay grade). Keep making your point about deficits (and keeping some physical assets stashed away). As always, an edifying read in the latest Haymaker. Merry Christmas/Mele Kalikimaka

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David - I thought you were going to name specific companies now that you are behind a paywall. Why are you still writing in generalities???

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Lance Roberts of realinvestmentadvice.com makes a compelling case that last year was a correction and not a bear market and so then this market is a continuation of the bull market and not a new one. That would eliminate the concern of Jim's about never retesting the lows.

Also, on a side note, please do not ever appear next to Peter Schiff in any situation. That guy is a Loser. He has been saying the same thing for 30 years and while he is eventually going to be proven correct, a whole lot of people have lost a whole lot of money listening to him. Plus he's just sleazy - the way he kept plugging his own products is disgusting. Seriously, David, you are risking your reputation by being seen with him.

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Well thought out thesis or very long term trends. Question: Why is the Chinese renembi be more trusted the the USD? China and its CCP bosses are moving toward more authoritarianism.

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The industrial capacitgy of China will guaranty a trade surplus, just look at export numbers for cars. Maybe not where to safely place money, but a natural center for trade in the 21 century.

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founding

I wondered if Kevin or any of the other analysts have thoughts on Subaru? Thanks, Mike Kelly

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