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Rosenberg, Wilson and Felder may have the timing off but they have the deflationary move ahead right. So does Hedgeye’s Macro team calling for the “Mother of All Bubbles” ahead pointing out it might well be like the “ Panic of 1907” banking crisis. That would not bode well for oil.
You are probably correct that Oil will take a hit IF there is a Panic, but, I'm in the Camp that says that less Oil produced means High prices REGARDLESS of Economic Conditions...Why? Are you going to stop eating? Are you going to stop going to work? Are you going to stop using your phone, car, Bank, Insurance Company, Medical needs? All which require Oil for it's Production, Transportation or Facilitation.
Long-time reader, first time commenter. Love your work!
It’s my understanding that Chat GPT uses a data set that only goes through September of 2021. So it can’t know things that have happened since then like Mike Wilson’s current earnings outlook...
Thank you for Today's Haymaker, Mr. Hay. The voyage to the end of the Everything Bubble is almost here. Hopefully, those wise enough to heed your warnings have taken the necessary steps to mitigate the coming carnage... Bored Apes and Crypto speculators, not so much...Have a great week, All.
Re ChatGPT... I know the early versions had some sort of disclaimer to the effect that the algos had only scrubbed the internet up to a certain date. If that is still the case it might explain some of its trouble on the more contempt recession calls...
Re Jesse Felders’ observations on the S&P overvaluation relative to coming earnings challenges... I think it is going to be very interesting to watch the markets reaction to a serious earnings crash. This might be a front row seat to the Passive Bid vs Active Ask battle.
Oil will probably go higher but Ican't see it reaching the levels it did at the start of the Ukraine war. There is plenty of oil in the world that will come to market once the price is high enough. I discount any talk of a banking panic and we are a long way from 1907. The fed can support the banks with free money and relax mark to market rules as rhey did in 2008. I wouldn't bet on deflation as there still is plenty of money in the economy and the politicians will be more comitted to govt support and big deficits as 2024 in an election year.
Rosenberg, Wilson and Felder may have the timing off but they have the deflationary move ahead right. So does Hedgeye’s Macro team calling for the “Mother of All Bubbles” ahead pointing out it might well be like the “ Panic of 1907” banking crisis. That would not bode well for oil.
You are probably correct that Oil will take a hit IF there is a Panic, but, I'm in the Camp that says that less Oil produced means High prices REGARDLESS of Economic Conditions...Why? Are you going to stop eating? Are you going to stop going to work? Are you going to stop using your phone, car, Bank, Insurance Company, Medical needs? All which require Oil for it's Production, Transportation or Facilitation.
Wishing you a speedy recovery from the tooth/abscess nightmare...and thank you for your continuing insights!
David,
Long-time reader, first time commenter. Love your work!
It’s my understanding that Chat GPT uses a data set that only goes through September of 2021. So it can’t know things that have happened since then like Mike Wilson’s current earnings outlook...
https://techcrunch.com/2023/03/14/openai-releases-gpt-4-ai-that-it-claims-is-state-of-the-art/amp/
Thank you for Today's Haymaker, Mr. Hay. The voyage to the end of the Everything Bubble is almost here. Hopefully, those wise enough to heed your warnings have taken the necessary steps to mitigate the coming carnage... Bored Apes and Crypto speculators, not so much...Have a great week, All.
Re ChatGPT... I know the early versions had some sort of disclaimer to the effect that the algos had only scrubbed the internet up to a certain date. If that is still the case it might explain some of its trouble on the more contempt recession calls...
Re Jesse Felders’ observations on the S&P overvaluation relative to coming earnings challenges... I think it is going to be very interesting to watch the markets reaction to a serious earnings crash. This might be a front row seat to the Passive Bid vs Active Ask battle.
Oil will probably go higher but Ican't see it reaching the levels it did at the start of the Ukraine war. There is plenty of oil in the world that will come to market once the price is high enough. I discount any talk of a banking panic and we are a long way from 1907. The fed can support the banks with free money and relax mark to market rules as rhey did in 2008. I wouldn't bet on deflation as there still is plenty of money in the economy and the politicians will be more comitted to govt support and big deficits as 2024 in an election year.
Less demand will mean lower prices, not higher! Saudi’s see it coming and are getting ahead of what is around the corner, Taking more now.
Champions APA CTRA DVN EPD - Go Oil Go!
I'm accumulating EDV, ZROZ for the inevitable rate reductions.
Agree with Jim and I hope we see a crash soon.
Thanks David!