Haymaker Special Edition
A Message on No Labels & Political Centrism
“The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.” -Edmund Burke
“Under democracy one party always devotes its chief energies to trying to prove that the other party is unfit to rule — and both commonly succeed, and are right.” -H.L. Mencken
This is the time of the year that easily lends itself to reflection on the year that was and the year to come. On the latter, I have to admit I face 2024 with a knotted stomach and an agitated mind.
This is despite that 2023 has turned out to be a pleasantly profitable year for client portfolios, as well as my own. There is a natural tendency to think that if the S&P 500 is going up, all must be well. I mean, isn’t the stock market a nearly infallible discounting machine?
Bluntly, a casual look back in time quickly dispels that notion. How accurately did 2021’s wildly bullish conditions anticipate 2022’s disaster, particularly for growth stocks? The same could be asked of October 2007, when the S&P made a new high in October of that year and the Great Recession began two months later.
To save time and space, I won’t recap the geopolitical threats we are facing, other than to note that they appear to be intensifying. Now, perhaps there are soon to be truces in Ukraine and the Middle East. If so, that would be a great relief. But should those situations devolve, as many experts warn, the appalling state of America’s political system leaves us badly compromised in our ability to effectively respond. Similarly, the U.S. government’s disastrous fiscal status also impairs America’s capabilities to cope with multiple threats. Some – like AI going viral and its vulnerability to being co-opted by malevolent actors – are literally existential.
Obviously, the U.S. has faced grave perils in the past and, generally, come out stronger in the end. However, inspired leadership rose to the challenge. Yet, with each passing presidential election our nation’s most important elected official is getting older but, sadly, not wiser. The 2020 choice between Donald Trump and Joe Biden was disturbing enough. To be looking at a replay is like a nightmare (if you are either a diehard Trump or a Biden supporter, you should stop reading now).
In my view, most Americans are viewing next November with either resignation or disgust, or both. Personally, I’m right there with the tens of millions, if not over 100 million, who are desperately yearning for another choice. Clearly, it needs to be one with a reasonable chance of winning and, critically, represents the values most of us hold dear. Frankly, I don’t think either of the geriatric, divisive and truth-challenged current candidates come close to representing what most Americans hold dear. America can do better — much, much better.
Though I’m less than two years shy of age 70, I’ve never been involved with politics. However, a few years ago I was alarmed enough about the political trends at that point to consider trying to start a grassroots movement to push back against the craziness. Fortunately, a client told me about one already in existence. As I soon learned, it had a number of congressional representatives who were members. A co-founder was Howard Marks, one of my heroes in the field of finance.
As many of you have read in past Haymakers, that organization is called No Labels. It has roughly 30 Democrat and 30 Republican congressmen and congresswomen who have formed the Problem Solvers Caucus. It’s fair to say these individuals are centrists and have been fighting back against the far-left and far-right drift of their own parties. Due to the finely balanced breakdown between Democrats and Republicans in Congress, No Labels and the Problem Solvers Caucus have considerable leverage to affect legislation. And they have.
In my opinion, and that of the founders of No Labels, one of the worst aspects of our current political system is that presidential candidates need to pander to their party’s extreme elements. That’s where the fanatical support resides that will stick with their standard bearer despite glaring character flaws and a series of policy failures. But that’s not where most Americans are politically. If you wonder why we continue to be faced with such unappealing candidates, you really don’t have to go much deeper than this reality.
Fortunately for America’s future, the exodus away from both Donald Trump and Joe Biden is extraordinary. In the case of our current president, the support erosion has been so dramatic that Democrat party power brokers are in a state of panic. Mr. Biden’s numbers in the critical swing states are particularly disturbing for those who want to see him reelected.
Ironically, it’s not that the majority of voters are enamored with Donald Trump. Undoubtedly, his base is loyal in the extreme but, again, most independents and a multitude of moderate Republicans are turning away from him, as you can see below.
It is interesting that 41 million voters support Mr. Trump’s positions even if they don’t approve of him, at least if these figures are in the ballpark. But that number is coming down hard and fast. Despite this support erosion, his lead against Mr. Biden is growing. This is another indication of the unpopularity of our current president. There’s little doubt his advanced age and the related questions about his mental acuity, as well as innumerable verbal gaffes, have severely harmed his standing. This is the case even among many staunch Democrats. It’s not being an alarmist to worry about his ability to make decisions that are exceedingly daunting even for a man or woman in the prime of their life. His actions, or inactions, have the potential to plunge the world into even greater chaos than it is currently experiencing.
Obviously, No Labels has a steep hill to climb, bordering on a sheer cliff. Yet the conditions for an alternative presidential ticket have never been so favorable. It’s also critical to realize this isn’t a third party. Rather, it is a fusion of centrist Democrats and Republicans, largely current or former Congress members or state governors. In other words, they don’t lack a political power base. This is unlike Ross Perot who, in 1992 – despite an on-again, off-again campaign – nonetheless managed to win nearly 19% of the popular vote.
The fact that No Labels’ Unity Ticket — at this point, a hypothetical bipartisan presidential and vice-presidential pairing — can lead Donald Trump and Joe Biden in the polls when no candidate has been named is remarkable. Of course, polls are far from infallible. It could also be reasonably asserted that the Unity Ticket will become less attractive to voters once it is populated with actual candidates. As we all know, there is no perfect person, or persons, out there. But there are several in both parties who are head-and-shoulders above Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden which, I realize, isn’t saying a lot.
When I try to summarize the No Labels movement, the phrase “Coalition of the Thinking” comes to my mind. To underscore that, we’ve attached a link to their Common Sense booklet. It essentially outlines their core beliefs.
It’s unlikely that you will support all of them, but this is a classic case of perfect being the enemy of good. The key aspect is that after reading their principles, you say to yourself something like: “Yeah, that makes a lot more sense than the nonsense we’ve been doing in this country for the last 25 years.” (Pages 8-12 provide a bullet-point summary of their primary positions.)
One of the repeated objections I hear and read about No Labels and its Unity Ticket is that it will help re-elect Donald Trump. There is some validity to this view. However, based on Joe Biden’s imploding support, I think a persuasive case can be made that for moderate Democrats and anti-Trump GOPers, the best hope for keeping Mr. Trump out of the Oval Office is to rally behind the Unity Ticket.
There is already a deluge of anti-No Labels media coverage, much of it generated by the Democratic Party machine. Vigorous attempts are being made to block No Labels ballot access in various states. Personally, I think that should infuriate all Americans who believe in real democracy, not just the cynically orchestrated kind the two parties feel we should have.
Beyond the obvious flaws of the two leading presidential candidates, my greatest fear is that if either of them wins again, it will divide our already highly polarized country. It may even lead to a modern-day version of a civil war. If you think I am being hyperbolic, please consider this excerpt from famed historian and demographer Neil Howe’s widely praised book The Fourth Turning Is Here:
By a three-to-one margin, Americans say their country is becoming less democratic over time. By a two-to-one margin they say that it is likely to “cease to be a democracy in the future”. Seeing partisanship rise and expecting democracy to be extinguished, they understandably worry their country is about to break up. Secessionist sentiment, hardly on any pollster’s radar screen before 2016, is suddenly widespread. Most Americans now agree that the nation “could be on the verge of another civil war”; more say that a civil war “is likely” than “is unlikely.”
Those are terrifying words for a terrifying time. In my opinion, they are not exaggerated. Yet, there is still a chance to bring America back from the brink. I think the only way to do that is for the rational majority of Americans to unite and push back against the anarchy and insanity that has become this nation’s political system.
There are around 15,700 subscribers to this newsletter. Almost all of you have extensive networks of contacts, friends and family. If you agree with the sentiments of this message, please forward it to as many people as possible. Above all, don’t give up hope in America’s ability to do the right thing, as Winston Churchill once said, after it has tried everything else.
But continuing on the path we’ve been on and hoping for some kind of magical deliverance, is not going to cut it. What’s needed at this late hour is an uprising of resistance by the rational majority, following democratic processes, to oppose and replace the abysmal leadership we’ve allowed to become embedded. There’s still time… but not much.
My fervent hope is that by this time next year the people will have spoken and the future of America will be radiant once again. There are solutions even to our most dire problems, but they require brave and inspired leaders. That’s certainly not the two leading presidential candidates, as they themselves have displayed during their terms in office.
Wishing you the very best for you, your families, and our country in 2024.
Sincerely,
David “The Haymaker” Hay
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Taking a centrist approach sounds appealing in theory. The devil is in the details though. Where do these people stand on the southern border issue? What is their take on climate change? On political censorship? On election security? On the federal debt? It will be exceedingly difficult to forge a middle ground on many of these issues
Agree with much of what you say but not all. When you say Biden is “truth challenged,” can you give me an example. I see him with faults. You stated many of them. But not telling the truth?Also, you did not list any of the things he has done well. Ward Bushnell