Video Haymaker - Millennial Investing
In The Ring - October 28th, 2022
Illustration provided by Millennial Investing
“The nice part about being a pessimist is that you are either constantly being proven right or pleasantly surprised.” -George Will, political pundit
"In investing, what is comfortable is rarely profitable." -Robert Arnott
Hello, Haymaker Readers:
Well, we’ve had some excitement this week, not all of the good sort, but it has led to a genuinely exciting change of schedule. My team and I had originally planned for my recent interview with Danielle DiMartino Booth to stand as today’s Video Haymaker. But an unexpected technical challenge has us instead posting my equally engaging conversation with Rebecca Hotsko of Millennial Investing, which we had previously scheduled for November 4th.
I’ll point out here that this was recorded in late September, and I did express my concerns about a possible October selling climax, aka, a crash, followed by a powerful rally. Unless Monday is truly a horror story, which is extremely improbable, my fears were unfounded. However, I have consistently noted that such plunges are very rare events, even in the crash-prone month of October.
To learn more about Evergreen Gavekal, where the Haymaker himself serves as Co-CIO, click below.
Whereas Danielle was a Haymaker as Host series guest, I was actually on the receiving end of the questions with Rebecca. This is, in fact, my second appearance on a Canadian finance program; most of you will recall my having been interviewed by Tom Bodrovics of Palisades Gold Radio a few months back (though they actually hail from different regions of the world’s second-largest country – geographically speaking, of course).
Rebecca is a terrific host in her own right and made sure we covered numerous topics of importance to Millennials who are looking to take on the markets just as the Haymaker has been doing for decades. In fact, if you know any Millennials who would be interested in an hour’s worth of no-cost investing/finance advice, you might forward them this post.
Note: As a “thank you” to Millennial Investing for welcoming us to their channel for an interview, we are offering their listeners a 33% discount on purchases of the Bubble 3.0 audiobook. We’re also extending that same discount offer to all Haymaker subscribers and readers for a limited time. Please see below:
Audiobook: https://awesound.com/a/bubble-30-historys-biggest-financial-bubble
Discount Code: MINVEST33
Rebecca’s team has conveniently time-stamped the interview, so please feel welcome to pick up at any point that interests you. And for added reference, below is a summary of what we discussed.
The fact that we are, possibly, already in a recession (despite nominally strong GDP figures), with an earnings recession even more likely
The need for a debt-to-GDP corrective, and how interest-rate policies must play a role in bringing about a healthier balance in that regard
The ongoing and wealth-eliminating collapse of COPS (crazy-overpriced stocks)
The “zombie status” of much of the corporate U.S. bond market
The possibility of the Fed purchasing corporate bonds again and, possibly, even stocks
The synchronized risks associated with the “shadow” banking system (i.e. hedge funds, among other examples), our blatantly dysfunctional treasury system, and our self-inflicted crisis with entitlement spending
The Fed’s obsessive concentration on lagging indicators rather than on real-time factors
The Canadian housing market, which is much worse off than America’s at the moment (this is partially a function of differences in mortgage terms, but also even more inflated prices and what appears to be rampant mortgage fraud on par with the U.S. disaster of 15 years ago)
The European energy catastrophe and the global recession to which it will certainly contribute
The bond bubble and the world’ most terrible period of wealth destruction in living memory.
Cryptos - Most Haymaker subscribers know where I stand on these (as in, I would like to stand on their grave)
What’s apprehending the Fed put these days.
The near-term fate of hard assets.
The Urban Kaoboy’s “Wrecking Ball Dollar”
Strategic Petroleum Reserve mismanagement (and, conversely, European fuel-switching) - We also discuss pellet demand and wood-harvesting in Western Europe.
Curious disinterest on part of European buyers in ridiculously low oil prices (plus, the Haymaker’s inclination towards energy investment).
A standing Haymaker question: Where is the scarcity?
Gold, gold mining, gold-miner ETFs, and gold’s continued “store of value” status.
The case for Millennials (eventually) buying bonds.
Lastly, we discuss my thoughts on the passive index bubble; I also elaborate on my case for active investing (get in the ring, Millennials, but, this time, not with meme stocks!)
It might be coming to you out of our intended sequence, but we’re happy to be sharing this interview with you here today. Enjoy.
I think what the other user suggested, a transcript, would be pretty cool. I believe it should be possible to automatically create one using some software ?
suggets you provide a transcript.. i skip all financial videos for obvious practical reasons .thx