Thanksgiving Week Edition + Haymaker Team Appreciation

Special Note

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“I would maintain that thanks are the highest form of thought; and that gratitude is happiness doubled by wonder.” -G.K. Chesterton, A Short History of England, 1917

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Apology time:  Last week’s Haymaker edition, The Next Big Short, incorrectly attributed the 5% to 7% fed funds rate prediction to former NY Federal Reserve President Bill Dudley.  It was, in fact, from a presentation made by current St. Louis Fed president James Bullard, who has become quite the bull in the Fed’s monetary fine china shop of late. Now, to the (brief) post.

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Well, I intended to take the week off and I’m (partially) doing just that. However, I had a grand conversation last week with one of the financial community’s best-known thinkers, Jim Rickards, and wouldn’t want a full week to pass before letting Haymaker subscribers check it out. Jim and I actually have a few friends in common, as we discussed before the recording started, but it was our first time speaking, and boy did I learn a lot in that fast-moving hour. So much, in fact, that I might do a write-up on some of what we discussed for my next Haymaker post.

For now, I hope all of you can find an hour of your own while preparing for Thanksgiving to listen to the interview. It comes in at around 54 minutes and will absolutely be worth your while. We start with supply chains (the subject of Jim’s latest book) and end up on Covid policy, international demographics and (perhaps the topic of my next post), deflation/disinflation. With every one of these, Jim illuminates generously and convincingly – I found his thoughts fascinating, as I believe you will, as well.

Before you hit that “Play” button, just one more thing: Thank you all. My team and I launched Haymaker just after the start of Q2 this year, and ever since it’s been a pleasure (undeniably a harried pleasure, at times) to put out the twice-weekly content we hope you find valuable and from which we hope you’ll gather helpful market insights. There’s a lot more ahead in the coming year, but as the traditional comfort of these chilly holiday weeks start to settle upon us, let’s take some time for ourselves and our families… right after you’ve finished with the interview, that is.

Enjoy.

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(Note: We’ve provided timestamps, as usual – please dart around the video as you like).

Timestamps

0:00 - 3:20 – Introduction & Jim’s Personal Supply Chain Challenge

3:21 - 4:42 – Audiobook Anecdotes

4:43 - 9:55 – Supply Chain History & Science 

9:56 - 14:43 – Supply Chain Frailty & Stressors

14:44 - 15:32  – Jim’s Diverse Professional Background

15:33 - 18:56  –   Productivity Concerns and Supply Chain 2.0

18:57 - 21:02  –   Taiwan Semiconductor

21:03 - 28:06  – Covid & Expertise Skepticism

28:07 - 32:40  –  Zero-Covid China (+ Herd Immunity)

32:41 - 35:02  –  Germany, Energy, Chess & Pushbacks

35:03 - 40:56  –  Peak China? (& Jim’s Bearishness)

40:57 - 43:45  –  Chinese & Russian Demographics (& Differences)

43:46 - 45:13  –  “Mr. Yen” & Economic Context

45:14 - 46:47  – The “Middle Income Trap”

46:48 - 50:21  – Recession, QT & MMT

50:22 - 54:21  – Disinflation, Deflation & Farewell

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