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Today's Piece Courtesy of Tan Kai Xian

Greetings, Founding Members:

In this note, Gavekal’s Kai Xian (KX) is analyzing recent shifts in the yield curve and also its historical tendencies at this stage of the economic cycle (i.e., very late-stage expansion). He’s expecting the normal pattern to play out, meaning that as evidence mounts a recession is looming, short rates come down hard and lon…