Haymaker Daily

Adam Taggart + Ryan Bohl

Hello, Subscribers:

Whatever else you had planned this morning (or afternoon/evening, depending on where and when you’re receiving this), we advise you make time to watch the Thoughtful Money interview linked below. In it, longtime friend of Haymaker (FOH) Adam Taggart essentially gives his returning guest and geopolitical expert, Ryan Bohl of RANE (Risk Assessment Network + Exchange) the floor for an hour’s time. His deep-dive on Iran itself and the Iranian War – has that been legally declared yet? – covers the current operation’s various military, economic, social, regional, and policy-centric concerns and questions to which we would all like answers. Bohl doesn’t offer a tidy forecast for everything, but he does point the lens at those factors most likely to affect what we hope will be a very near-term set of acceptable outcomes.

There are mixed feelings on this in the Haymaker camp. Iranian leadership had long taken a hard-line against its own people and had been a menacing presence on the global stage since The Merv Griffin Show was still enjoying its day in the sun. Then there’s the question of what an actual, stated, measurable endgame looks like. Operation Iraqi Freedom, which launched in 2003, was a success until the firm footing of conventional warfare gave way to the quicksand of a poorly defined counterinsurgency mission whose duration spanned another eight years (not counting airstrike support operations thereafter… which actually should and do count.)

If removing baddies from the realm of international affairs and empowering populations to take control of their own lands could realistically be limited to precision airstrikes, we might be less concerned about where all this is headed. But Iran is a vast country beset by a complex set of interlocking factors — religious, cultural, historical, nationalist, militarist — it’s not the sort of place you reconfigure with a rug pull and a “You’re welcome for the overnight toppling!” Some among the citizenry are and will continue to be elated with the end of a dictator’s reign; some are and will continue to be enraged by what they view as Western (and Israeli) hubris. If you have accurate polling as to which group is larger, let us know in the comments section… but be ready to revise your figures 34 minutes later.

And now, we leave you in the care of Messrs Taggart and Bohl.

The Haymaker Team

---

---

---

---

---

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

This material has been distributed solely for informational and educational purposes only and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy any security or to participate in any trading strategy. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy, adequacy, or completeness cannot be guaranteed, and David Hay makes no representation as to its accuracy, adequacy, or completeness.

The information herein is based on David Hay’s beliefs, as well as certain assumptions regarding future events based on information available to David Hay on a formal and informal basis as of the date of this publication. The material may include projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events, targets or expectations. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. There is no guarantee that any opinions, forecasts, projections, risk assumptions, or commentary discussed herein will be realized or that an investment strategy will be successful. Actual experience may not reflect all of these opinions, forecasts, projections, risk assumptions, or commentary.

David Hay shall have no responsibility for: (i) determining that any opinion, forecast, projection, risk assumption, or commentary discussed herein is suitable for any particular reader; (ii) monitoring whether any opinion, forecast, projection, risk assumption, or commentary discussed herein continues to be suitable for any reader; or (iii) tailoring any opinion, forecast, projection, risk assumption, or commentary discussed herein to any particular reader’s investment objectives, guidelines, or restrictions.

David Hay is a passive owner of Evergreen Gavekal (“Evergreen”), a registered investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. As of 03/31/2025 Mr. Hay has no involvement in the day to day operations of Evergreen, nor is he involved with any investment research, or investment management performed by Evergreen. The information herein reflects the personal views of David Hay as a seasoned investor in the financial markets and any recommendations noted may be materially different than the investment strategies that Evergreen manages on behalf of, or recommends to, its clients.

Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to directly or indirectly in this material, will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated performance level(s), or be suitable for your portfolio. Due to rapidly changing market conditions and the complexity of investment decisions, supplemental information and other sources may be required to make informed investment decisions based on an individual’s investment objectives and suitability specifications. All expressions of opinions are subject to change without notice. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any security or investment strategy discussed in this presentation.