Hello, Subscribers:
Over the last 20 years, the world’s energy consumption has significantly increased, especially in the developing world. In particular, electricity usage jumped meaningfully.
Nuclear power plants produce electrical power (versus, say, oil refineries, which primarily produce transportation fuels), as do wind and solar farms. Accordingly, it’s disappointing that global nuclear energy generation has been flat for the last 20 years, despite a recent rebound.
Yet, while most Western countries, including nuclear power-friendly France, have seen their total atomic energy output actually contract over the last 20 years, China has emphatically headed in the opposite direction. As you can see below, its nuclear generation has increased 900% since 2005.
You can see that Russia has also raised its atomic power output, but by a much more modest 50% over this timeframe.
The U.S. has remained steady-state while both Germany and Japan have dramatically turned away from the power source that is both emissions-free and has the greatest energy density known to humanity. Unlike Germany, however, Japan has had a profound change of heart and is in the process of restarting its entire nuclear fleet as the shock of the Fukushima disaster fades.
As this re-opening continues, Japan’s total nuclear power production should nearly quadruple. This is another reason why uranium demand is likely to continue growing at a rapid clip, along with the frenzy to build electricity-intensive AI data centers. There is scant chance supply can keep up, implying much higher prices for the heaviest natural element, U-92.
David “The Haymaker” Hay
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
This material has been distributed solely for informational and educational purposes only and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy any security or to participate in any trading strategy. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy, adequacy, or completeness cannot be guaranteed, and David Hay makes no representation as to its accuracy, adequacy, or completeness.
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David Hay is a passive owner of Evergreen Gavekal (“Evergreen”), a registered investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. As of 03/31/2025 Mr. Hay has no involvement in the day to day operations of Evergreen, nor is he involved with any investment research, or investment management performed by Evergreen. The information herein reflects the personal views of David Hay as a seasoned investor in the financial markets and any recommendations noted may be materially different than the investment strategies that Evergreen manages on behalf of, or recommends to, its clients.
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