Hello, Subscribers:
Louis-Vincent Gave, mon ami (in his native tongue) and almost like family to me, gave me his permission to share one of his recently published notes with Haymaker readers. As most of you are aware, Louis is highly respected in the financial community, is a frequent guest on the most popular investments podcasts, and has been the subject of feature articles in Barron’s.
Gavekal Research, the firm he founded at the start of the 21st century, boasts many of the top money-management and brokerage firms as clients. Basically, when Louis talks, Wall Street listens, as do the denizens of financial centers all over the world.
In this piece, Louis is analyzing what he believes are several of the most powerful trends impacting nations, economies, and markets. In my view, it’s a thoroughly informative read... which is why I asked if we could share it with you. (If you’re time-pressed, skip to the conclusion, though it may whet your appetite for the full meal deal.)
Personally, I think his first chart is a stunner. We’ve become numb to these types of visuals, but for the sake of our portfolios, we shouldn’t be. This is likely to go down in history as one of the greatest valuation distortions ever seen.
David “The Haymaker” Hay
Which Megatrend Will Reshape Global Markets?
Louis-Vincent Gave
Originally Published September 19th, 2025
The greatest comparative advantage of our little firm has to be that we talk to smart people all around the world in lots of different businesses. This puts us in the path of good and original ideas, and quips and anecdotes that we can steal and pass off as our own. It also allows us to see how different parts of the world perceive the risks and opportunities unfolding in financial markets. Today, the divergence between regions could not be starker.