Friday POW!
Pick of the Week
“Value investing works because it’s difficult.” -Seth Klarman, Hedge Fund Manager
Friday Pick of the Week (POW) ↦ National Fuel Gas (NFG)
Before we get into the details on this week’s POW!, we wanted to advise you we are closing out our suggestion to buy a package of tax-loss selling victims. We brought those to your attention in early December of last year. This is a time-honored method to produce solid returns in a short-period of time, capitalizing on the selling crescendo that often occurs with poorly performing stocks toward year-end.
At the bottom of this note, available only to our paying subscribers, is a recap of how those performed. As we’ve admitted, we whiffed last month when we failed to suggest taking a gain on Novo Nordisk (NVO), after it ran up roughly 30% in less than 60 days. Hopefully, some of you took at least partial profits on that move.
For those who didn’t, the reversal of fortune has been costly. Regardless, please see the summary of this packaged trade at the end of this note. It’s definitely not a bad news story, despite the NVO flub.
TLDR* summary:
Business model in a nutshell: Vertically integrated natural gas company with transformational Ohio-based acquisition
Recent catalyst: $2.6B CenterPoint Ohio deal announced October 2025, doubles utility business
Latest results: Q1 FY2026 beat with $2.06 earnings per share (EPS) (up 24% YoY), reaffirmed $7.60 - $8.10 guidance (14% growth)
Competitive moat: Vertical integration across the value chain (produce → gather → transport → distribute)
