My observation when taking all of this into account is that people seem to see binary outcomes. Either the markets crash or there is a crack up boom / good times forever and ever. But the world is non linear. What if we end up in stagflation. Low growth and stubbornly high inflation? What if we have finally reached the limits of where QE can take us? QE only works in a low interest rate low inflation world. What if we are now leaving that world behind and replacing it with a geopolitical nightmare?
My observation when taking all of this into account is that people seem to see binary outcomes. Either the markets crash or there is a crack up boom / good times forever and ever. But the world is non linear. What if we end up in stagflation. Low growth and stubbornly high inflation? What if we have finally reached the limits of where QE can take us? QE only works in a low interest rate low inflation world. What if we are now leaving that world behind and replacing it with a geopolitical nightmare?
QT to QE...Luke Gromen has been all over this in his weekly Tree Rings. Let's watch.
Ref Oil Growth, don't forget Guyana. Growing from 0 to approx 2M bbl/day. Stabroek is an absolute monster.
Thanks as always for your work David.