Hello, Subscribers!
Today we’re sharing with you an immensely informative post from the MacroTourist, Kevin Muir, who arranges financial history, economic concepts, and contemporary analysis into one of the best articles on deficits and international trade we’ve ever encountered.
Now, for the sake of providing a solid preview and giving our readers a succinct overview of Kevin’s article, we have done the work of heavily abridging it. However, because of the piece’s remarkable scope in terms of market insight, it’s one we hope many of you will find time to read in full*.
With Trump politically unencumbered in his second-and-final term, his approach to deficits will almost certainly be of the hard-line sort, a reality that, for better or worse, will impact stocks, labor costs, product availability, and trade scenarios in substantial ways over the coming years. Muir’s piece — even in shortened form — is a comprehensive guide to the economic landscape as it now sits and as it might well look all too soon.
The Haymaker Team
*Note: The full piece to which we’ve linked at the end is available to Kevin’s paid subscribers.
TWIN DEFICITS: THE WORRIES ARE BACK
And why the 'tourist thinks the market has got it backwards
Kevin Muir (Originally published January 20th, 2025)
All right folks, strap in; this post will be heavy on economics, but I will make sure to bring it back to markets and show why much of the conventional thinking about the twin deficits is just plain wrong (or at least deeply flawed when it comes to the deficits’ relationship with financial asset returns).